MAJOR SECTORWISE STOCKS & INDIAN MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK - 26.Oct.2015 to 30.Oct.2015

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 26 to 30.10.2015 Positive next week; ITC, Dabur earnings in focus

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Corporate earnings and outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee's monetary
policy meeting will lend direction to domestic share indices next week, but on Monday
indices are set to witness a gap-up opening as China announced a cut in interest rates.
After Indian market hours, China announced that it had cut its one-year lending rate and
one-year deposit rate by 25 basis points, and reduced its reserve requirement ratio by 50
basis points to boost the economy.

Major European indices extended their intraday gains on the news and were up over 1-
3%. A near 1% rise in Dow futures indicates that the US market will also open on a
strong note later yesterday. Apart from these markets, prices of base metals on the
London Metal Exchange also advanced following China's move, which may boost stocks
of domestic metal and mining companies on Monday.

Yesterday, the Bank Nifty ended up 1.3% at 17934.05 points. Whether the gains in
indices sustain over the week will depend on corporate earnings and outcome of US
FOMC's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Given the earnings-heavy week and
expiry of the October derivatives series, also expect some volatility in the domestic
equities.

Rollovers will be closely watched this time around as the lot size for the Nifty is higher in
the November derivatives series. In August, the NSE had announced a revision of the lot
size of the CNX Nifty to 75 from 25 starting from the November contract.

Broadly, Nifty is seen moving in the 8200-8400 point range next week. Expect the index
to face stiff resistance between 8350 and 8400 points. Yesterday, share indices ended up
but off the two-month high it hit intraday on weakness in some telecommunication
companies' shares and select index heavyweights. The Nifty closed up 43.75 points or
0.5% at 8295.45 points and the Sensex ended up 183.15 points or 0.7% at 27470.81
points.

In the coming week, Bharti Airtel, Housing Development Finance Corp, Lupin, Maruti
Suzuki India, Ambuja Cements, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, YES Bank, ICICI Bank, ITC,
Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank will detail Jul-Sep earnings. On Monday, Asian
Paints may open down 2-3% as the company's Jul-Sep earnings, released after market
hours yesterday, fell short of analysts' estimates.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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19.Oct.2015 to 23.Oct.2015 - SECTORWISE STOCKS & INDIAN MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK

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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 19 to 23.10.2015 (RIL seen up on buoyant Jul-Sep GRM, PAT)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries' robust Jul-Sep earnings are set to further lift the mood in the equity markets on Monday, but action in the latter part of the week will be stock-specific, taking direction from earnings of other key companies. Post market hours yesterday, Reliance Industries reported robust earnings—a net profit of 65.6 bln rupees, beating analysts' estimate of 58.39 bln rupees.

The company reported gross refining margin of $10.6 a barrel, up from $10.4 a quarter ago. Besides Reliance Industries, the Jul-Sep earnings of other Nifty constituents such as HCL Technologies, UltraTech Cement, ACC, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Cairn India, HDFC Bank, Wipro, Idea Cellular, and Asian Paints will be in focus next week.

Earnings are important, vital. If earnings are not good, then I think we will see disappointment post that. Some market participants advise caution, even if indices gain. Traders should continue with positive yet cautious approach and prefer only quality stocks even for the day trade. The global markets will also be watched for cues. Technical analysts see the National Stock Exchange's Nifty gaining next week and could test 8300 points after breaking the crucial support level of 8200 points.

The 50-stock index is seen finding support at 8100 points. Yesterday, the Nifty ended at a near two-month of 8238.15 points, up 0.7%, and the S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.8% to end at 27214.60 points. Gains in the broad market were led by banks, with the Bank Nifty ending as the top gainer among sectoral indices, up 1.3% at 17912.85 points.

Next week, the index is seen extending gains and could test 18200 points. Among other sectors, cement companies are also likely to be in focus next week, with ACC and UltraTech Cement reporting their Jul-Sep earnings.
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK - 12.Oct.2015 - 16.Oct.2015

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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 12 to 16.10.2015 (Narrow range with negative bias)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
After gaining over 3% this week, the bias for benchmark indices is expected to remain positive next week, while Jul-Sep earnings of key index constituents and data on consumer price index-based inflation and industrial growth will be in focus.

Among index-constituents, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, and Reliance Industries will report Jul-Sep earnings next week. Market sentiment will also depend on data on CPI and index of industrial production.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen consolidating between the levels of 8000 and 8300 points next week. The 50-share benchmark index ended at 8189.70 points, up 60.35 points or 0.7% and S&P BSE Sensex closed at 27079.51 points, up 233.70 points or 0.9%.

Stocks of information technology companies will be in focus next week as the earnings for the sector are kicked off by Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, the two index and sector majors.

Investors will also closely track Bihar assembly elections, which will begin next week. Voting for 49 seats in the first phase of polls will happen on Monday.

Among sectors, housing finance companies and select banks are seen outperforming as the Reserve Bank of India has cut risk weight requirements on certain home loans. This is also seen positive for stocks for real estate companies in the affordable housing segment over the long term.

Stocks of State Bank of India, IDBI Bank, and Bank of Baroda are seen outperforming the sector. The Bank Nifty is seen taking support at 17,170 points and facing resistance at 17,800 points. The banking gauge has ended its volatile week with modest gains of 2.5%.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK - 5.Oct.2015 to 9.Oct.2015

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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.Oct.2015 (Selling pressure to continue next week)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Traders are likely to watch the movement in global equity market next week due to lack of significant triggers in domestic equities. With no major domestic event in near future, we believe global cues would largely dictate our market trend in coming days.

Markets will be closed on Friday for Gandhi Jayanti. Market participants expect a positive bias but gains are likely to be capped as traders will be on the sideline ahead of corporate earnings for Jul-Sep on Oct 9, a market participant said. IndusInd Bank's results will kick start the earnings season.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen facing stiff resistance at 8050 points, although 8000 points is a key psychological level. Due to selling at higher levels the index has failed to close over 8000 points over the last one month, despite rising above that level intraday in four sessions during the period.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 28.Sep.2015 to 1.Oct.2015

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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 28.09.2015 to 01.10.2015 May open up next week on RBI rate cut hope

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Sentiment is expected to be frail next week as foreign institutional investors will continue selling in emerging markets and this will cap any upside if the Reserve Bank of India was to cut rates on Tuesday. The RBI will detail its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy of 2015-16 (Apr-Mar) on Tuesday. The MSCI Emerging Market Index has slumped over 5% this week due to fears of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, and slows down in the global economy. India has also under-performed most other emerging markets in this month. In September so far, foreign investors have net sold $415.76 mln in the Indian equity market.

Most market participants expect the RBI to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points. Benign consumer price inflation readings, running below the central banks own indicative trajectory and broad-based disinflation have offered room for monetary easing. Expect the RBI to adopt a neutral to a mildly hawkish stance, as it may shift its focus to consumer price inflation target of 5% in January 2017. These factors are seen weighing on benchmark indices in the next week.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is expected trade between 7700-8000 points next week. Thursday, it ended at 7868.50 points, up 22.55 points or 0.3% and S&P BSE Sensex closed at 25863.50 points, up 40.51 points or 0.2%.

In the futures and options segment, rollovers to the October series indicate that market participants have transferred mostly short positions in Nifty, and rate-sensitive sectors such as banks, capital goods, infrastructure and metal. The sentiment in banks is also negative as RBI's draft guidelines to change the current base rate framework to ensure faster transmission of policy rate cuts is seen weighing on net interest margins. If the new base rate is implemented then banks' net interest margins are expected to witness a contraction of 13-70 basis points over the next two financial years.

Factoring in concerns revolving around asset quality, slower credit growth and margin compression on adoption of expected new base rate framework. A continuous decline in iron ore and copper prices have ensured that traders roll over a high amount of short positions in the October derivatives contracts of metal companies. On the bright side, information technology sector has witnessed a high rollover of long positions, as the rupee is expected to depreciate further against the dollar. The sentiment is also positive on media sector, which has been relatively insulated from global uncertainty and is also expected to post robust growth in revenue. This was evident from the high amount of long rollovers seen in Dish TV, Sun TV Network and Zee Entertainment.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 21.Sep.2015 to 25.Sep.2015

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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.09.2015 (Stocks will be driven by Newsflow)

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( www.rupeedesk.in )

The Indian equity market is likely to be volatile next week ahead of the expiry of September futures and options on Thursday, while hopes of a rate cut by the RBI may spur gains in rate-sensitive stocks.

As the US Federal Reserve left key policy rates unchanged in its monetary policy meeting that ended Thursday, market participants expect strength of the dollar and US bond yields to be capped.

Meanwhile, market participants expect foreign institutional investors to stall capital flows to emerging markets such as India, owing to uncertainty over global economy and the timing of a rate hike by the Fed.

The National Stock Exchange's Nifty is seen trading between 7750 points and 8150 points in the coming next week. Yesterday, both benchmark indices ended up about 1%, with the Nifty closing up 82.75 points at 7981.90 and the S&P BSE Sensex ending up 254.94 points at 26218.91.

A spike in volumes and volatility in the last fifteen minutes of yesterday session indicated that traders unwound their long positions, and this reflects caution ahead of expiry of the September derivatives contract on Thursday. While some market participants expect rate-sensitive stocks to rise in the near-term, others are skeptical whether the rate cut would be passed on by banks.

Stocks of information technology companies and US-focussed pharmaceutical companies are likely to witness some profit booking as the dollar is seen continuing gaining strength against the rupee. Last trading day the rupee appreciated 1.1% to trade at 65.74 rupees against the dollar.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 14.Sep.2015 to 18.sep.2015

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Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 14 to 18.09.2015 (Bounceback seen post spectrum trading nod)

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( www.rupeedesk.in )

All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve next week as the central bank is holding its two-day
monetary policy meeting on Wednesday to decide on hiking interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

On Monday, indices will react positively to better-than-expected July industrial growth data.
However, volatility is likely to increase as the outcome of the Fed meeting gets closer. Comments of US Fed officials regarding recent economic data have not given a clear indication whether a rate hike is imminent.

After remaining closed on Thursday for Ganesh Chathurthi, domestic equity market will react to the outcome of the Fed meeting on Friday. On Monday, indices may open up as India's industrial growth in July came in at 4.2%, higher than estimate of 3.4%. It was 4.4% a month ago.

Focus will also be on the headline inflation rate based on the CPI (Combined) for August, due after market hours on Monday. The headline inflation rate is expected to fall to a nine-month low of 3.5% in August from 3.78% a month ago due to statistical effect of a high base.

While some market participants said the domestic equities could see a knee-jerk downside reaction next week if Fed hikes rates, others believe that a rate hike has been factored in and a significant fall is unlikely.

The most likely scenario is that the Fed will say time for hiking rates is getting closer. The second most likely scenario is that they will hike by a small amount and signal that there are more hikes to come. However, a delay in rate hike by the US Fed to October or December could stall capital inflows in the country till winter due to the uncertainty over revival in corporate earnings and the Bihar Assembly elections.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in )
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7.Sep.2015 to 11.Sep.2015 - Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for fhe Week

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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 07 to 11.09.2015

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( www.rupeedesk.in )

The equity market will continue to face the risk of a further slump next week as investors around the world grapple with fears of yet another slowdown in the global economy. Yesterday, the National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at a 13-month low of 7665.05, down 2.2% from Thursday, and posting a fall of 4.3% for the week.

After fall, there will be caution till the US Federal Reserve's next monetary policy meeting on Sep 16-17. The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 25201.90 points, down 2.2% from Thursday.

Global markets will track the trend in US equities, which are likely to fall last day. Dow futures fell over 180 points after the release of the US non-farm payrolls data. Non-farm payrolls rose 173,000 in August. Also, unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, the lowest rate since April, 2008.

According to the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's July meeting, some
policymakers showed concerns over lagging inflation and awaited further progress in the labour
market before tightening monetary policy. There is an expectation that the data will give an indication of the rate hike in US...

Domestically, there are no triggers (for equities). There is talk of having a Parliamentary session for GST (Goods and Service Tax Bill), but it is not happening.

The Nifty is seen finding immediate support at 7500 points level. On the other hand, any rebound in the Nifty could lead the index to face resistance at 8000 points. Among sectors, banking and other rate-sensitive stocks are likely to be weak, with market participants advising investors to avoid them until the market stabilises. Investors advised to buy pharmaceutical and information technology stocks among defensives. The weak rupee against the dollar is a key factor affecting information technology stocks.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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24.Aug.2015 - 28.Aug.2015 - Weekly Indian Market & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook

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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.08.2015 Seen range bound with a positive bias

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Concerns over slowdown in the global economy will continue to weigh on market sentiment in the coming week, with benchmark indices likely to fall further. Amid the persisting weak sentiment, one stock that will be in the limelight on Monday is Indian Oil Corp, in which the government will divest 10% stake through an offer for sale on Monday. Yesterday, stocks of Indian Oil ended down 0.7% at 394.85 rupees. The uncertainty in the global markets seems to have offset the news of government considering giving relief to foreign institutional investors on the minimum alternate tax issue.

The news is unlikely to soothe market sentiment in a big way. It will provide initial support but if the macro overhang continues, not too much positive will come out of this. Moreover, expiry of the August futures contracts on Thursday will keep trade volatile during the week. We expect the August futures contract of the National Stock Exchange's Nifty to expire around 8300 points. The likely weakness in the rupee will also weigh.

Yesterday, the rupee ended at 65.8250 per dollar, its lowest closing since Sep 5, 2013. Worries that a slowdown in the Chinese economy will translate into slower global growth saw the Nifty and the S&P BSE Sensex falling 2.6% and 2.5%, respectively, this week.

The benchmark indices have effectively erased all the gains made this year. Besides global concerns, persisting worries over lack of progress on key legislations and pick-up in earnings growth, and uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's rate hike move have led to the gradual weakening in domestic equities. Year to date, Nifty is up 0.2% and Sensex is down 0.5%.

Yesterday, Nifty and Sensex ended at a two-month low. Nifty closed at 8299.95, down 72.80 points or 0.9% and Sensex ended at 27366.07, down 241.75 points or 0.9%. Banks and Metal stocks are likely to extend losses and a stock-specific approach next week.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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INDIAN MARKET & SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK - 3.Aug.2015 - 7.Aug.2015

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 03 to 07.08.2015

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( www.rupeedesk.in )

Stock indices are seen trading with a positive bias next week after they ended at a one-week high yesterday but the sustainability of these gains will depend on the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy on Tuesday. According to a Cogencis poll of 40 economists, treasurers, bankers and fund managers, 88% expect the Indian central bank to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7.25% due to uncertainty surrounding the monsoons and timing of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. The rest expect a 25-basis-point cut.

However, on Monday, domestic equities may be range bound owing to weak Apr-Jun earnings from index major Larsen & Toubro. Post market hours yesterday, L&T reported earnings for the quarter ended June which misses analysts' expectations on the net profit and sales front. L&T's consolidated net profit dropped 37% on year to 6.06 bln rupees, missing analysts' estimate of 7.92 bln rupees. Order inflows fell 21% on year to 264.00 bln rupees.

Consolidated net sales at 202.5 bln rupees were up 7% on year but lower than forecast of 203.20 bln rupees. Operating margin declined to 11.3% from 13.2% a year. The company has maintained its order inflow growth and revenue growth guidance of 15% for the current financial year. Yesterday, the stock ended up 1% at 1,791.25 rupees. Apart from L&T's numbers, update on the southwest monsoon forecast on Sunday by the India Meteorological Department will also lend direction to equities on Monday.

Apart from the RBI policy, market participants will track Apr-Jun earnings as well as progress of key bills such as the Goods and Services Tax bill in Parliament next week. On the earnings front,
Bharat Heavy Electricals, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Grasim Industries, Hero MotoCorp and HCL Technologies are the major companies reporting Apr-Jun results next week.

Among sectors, automobile stocks will be in focus as their July sales numbers are released and
public sector banks are seen trading with a positive bias after the government detailed its capital
infusion plan for PSU banks for the next few years. As a lot hinges on RBI policy outcome, market participants peg initial resistance for the National Stock Exchange's Nifty at 8600 points. Looking at the price action and that market has given a closing right near the highs of the week indicates that market is poised to go higher.

Flows from Employees' Provident Fund Organisation which yesterday said that it would start
investing in the equity market from Aug 6, will keep the downside limited in equities. Yesterday, the Nifty surged 111.05 points or 1.3% to close at 8532.85 points and the S&P BSE Sensex jumped 409.21 points or 1.5% to end at 28114.56 points.
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INDIAN MARKET & MAJOR SECTORWISE STOCKS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK - 27.Jul.2015 - 31.Jul.2015

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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 27 to 31.07.2015

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( www.rupeedesk.in )

A bearish bias is seen prevailing in benchmark indices in a trigger-heavy week ahead. Companies Apr-Jun earnings, the ongoing Monsoon Session of Parliament, expiry of July derivatives contracts, and the US Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy meeting are some of the major events which will be closely tracked during the next week.

The overall market sentiment seems to be low owing to lack of progress on key bills in the ongoing Parliament session. If you observe in the past three days, indices weakened only in the second half of the trading session. This is because the Parliamentary houses kept getting adjourned and policy markers are taking too long to pass key bills on Goods and Services Tax and land acquisition.

Most Nifty companies have posted poor Apr-Jun earnings so far. Banks, which form a major portion of Nifty constituents, have reported higher non-performing assets and provisions this quarter as well, "Earnings of major sector-leaders will be key in setting market trend for next week.

Ambuja Cements, Tech Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India, Punjab National Bank, Vedanta, YES Bank, Bank of Baroda, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, NTPC, ICICI Bank, and Larsen & Toubro are among the Nifty constituents posting Apr-Jun earnings next week.

Shares of Bharat Electronics, Agro Tech Foods, Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services, and State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur will also be in focus as they are yet to report Apr-Jun earnings today.

Andhra Bank, Havells India, Indian Overseas Bank, Persistent Systems, and Pfizer will detail their earnings for the reporting quarter on Saturday. Investors will also await details on Justice A.P. Shah Committee's final report on Minimum Alternate Tax. The authorities are meeting today, but the government may only announce its stance on the issue after Supreme Court gives its verdict on the  Castleton case.

The Supreme Court is slated to give its order on a plea filed by Castleton Investment against
minimum alternate tax demand on Aug 4. The Bombay High Court has also stayed the hearing on Aberdeen Global Emerging Markets' plea against Minimum Alternate Tax demand till the Supreme Court gives its verdict the Castleton case.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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